Storm Readiness: Using the Thunderstorm Probability Feature

The Global Thunderstorm Probability feature improves the capability to assess and forecast thunderstorms for a two-week period. This tool offers worldwide coverage, encompassing all probabilities associated with thunderstorms.

Key Features

• Temporal and Spatial Analysis: Utilize both the timeline and map viewer to observe the evolution of thunderstorm threats over time and across different regions. This feature allows you to visualize and track the progression of potential thunderstorms effectively.
• Actionable Insights: The tool enables you to generate actionable notifications based on conditions that indicate a significant threat, helping you to initiate timely response actions.
• Data Source and Accuracy: The new Thunderstorm Probability Data Processing Layer (DPL) is sourced from the ECMWF-EPS (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System) lightning flash density forecasts. It specifically measures the probability that lightning flash density will exceed 0.1 flashes per 100 square kilometers per hour.

Specifications 

This feature belongs to the Core Data Processing Layer group, and is available to all customers.

• Supported Time Range: The feature provides forecasts to 340 hours into the future.
• Supported Timesteps: Data is updated hourly, providing detailed and timely updates on thunderstorm probabilities.
• Units of Measurement: Thunderstorm probabilities are presented as percentages, offering a straightforward interpretation of the data.
• Display: The probability data can be viewed on a timeline, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions based on the progression of thunderstorm probabilities.
• Supported Apps: In addition to its availability on the platform, the Global Thunderstorm Probability feature is also accessible via our API. For more details and integration guidelines, please visit this link. 

Important Considerations 

• The thunderstorm probability product is separate from existing real-time lightning alerts, and should not supersede their use.
• Thunderstorm probability should be used to indicate general activity and the risk of hazardous conditions over a region.
• The product’s coarse resolution (units per 100 km²) means lightning activity will not be exact in location. Forecasts are more useful over larger regions.
• Forecast cycles update every 12 hours, meaning forecasts at short lead times may have incorrect timings. Forecasts are more useful over longer lead times.
• The product is available starting at +3 hours because forecast steps are averaged over the preceding 3 hours. The data switches from 3-hour to 6-hour averages over preceding valid times at +144 hours.

For any additional information or assistance please contact our support team at support@tomorrow.io.